Forecast that reflect very little happenstance fluctuation in the
Question 1
 Forecast that reflect very little happenstance fluctuation in the past data are said to exhibit
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1. 
Seasonal effects 
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2. 
noise dampening response 
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3. 
impulse response 
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4. 
all of the above 
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5. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 2
 A Winter’s forecasting model that has zero values for the beta and gamma constants exhibit what type of behavior
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1. 
A simple exponential smoothing model 
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2. 
Impulse response 
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3. 
Noise dampening 
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4. 
all of the above 
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5. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 3
 In measuring forecast accuracy, the average of the absolute difference between the forecast and the actual demand is called
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1. 
alpha 
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2. 
Ebar 
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3. 
MAD 
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4. 
all of the above 
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5. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 4
 Choice the best type of forecasting methods for the type of data indicated
trend data that fits in a straight line 




short range forecast with no trends or seasonal effects 

random data with no seasonal effects or trends 

random data that illustrates a trend or seasonal pattern 



20 points
Question 5
 In order to establish a forecast method that exhibits impulse response;
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1. 
an exponential smoothing forecast method should be used 
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2. 
the data must be linear 
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3. 
The alpha coefficient should be set close to 1 for exponential smoothing 
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4. 
The alpha coefficient should be set close to 0 for exponential smoothing 
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5. 
None of the above 
5 points
Question 6
 Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the forecast for November if a three month moving average model is used?
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1. 
49.25 
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2. 
50.67 
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3. 
53.00 
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4. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 7
 Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, which month has a demand forecast equal to 55 for a 3 month moving average approach
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1. 
April 
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2. 
June 
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3. 
August 
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4. 
October 
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5. 
None of the above 
5 points
Question 8
 Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the November forecast if exponential smoothing is used with an alpha value = .1
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1. 
47.9 
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2. 
53.2 
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3. 
40.8 
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4. 
51.6 
5 points
Question 9
 Refer to the data, table 1, from the discussion folder. Using this data, what is the forecast error % for an exponential smoothing model with a alpha of .6
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1. 
10% 
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2. 
12% 
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3. 
14% 
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4. 
16% 
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5. 
18% 
5 points
Question 10
 Forecasting models are an integral part of business planning that requies input from
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1. 
marketing 
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2. 
demand estimates 
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3. 
sales forecast 
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4. 
all of the above 
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5. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 11
 The alpha coefficient in exponential smothing
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1. 
is set equal to the actual value in period 1 
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2. 
varies over a time series of data 
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3. 
is a value between 0 and 1 
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4. 
all of the above 
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5. 
none of the above 
5 points
Question 12
 Quarterly data which reflect an increase every fourth quarter followed by a decrease every first quarter are said to be
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1. 
seasonal 
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2. 
cyclical 
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3. 
periodical 
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4. 
abnormal 
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5. 
following a trend 
5 points
Question 13
 To deseasonalize time series data
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1. 
divide each actual value by the trend line intercept 
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2. 
divide each actual value by its seasonal index factor 
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3. 
divide each actual value by total forecast error 
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4. 
divide each actual value by the alpha coefficient 
5 points
Question 14
 A linear trend for 12 months of data is y = 339.02 + 23.96x. What is the forecast for the next quarter (January, Feruary and March)?
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1. 
1160.82 
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2. 
1807.74 
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3. 
2023.38 
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4. 
3641.59 
5 points
Question 15
 Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the MAD for an exponential smoothing model with alpha = .1
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1. 
6.2 
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2. 
7.7 
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3. 
8.3 
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4. 
8.8 
5 points
Question 16
 The delphi method of forecasting is
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1. 
time series method for detecting seasonality 
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2. 
variation of exponential smoothing method 
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3. 
multiple regression method 
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4. 
qualitative method which solicits from experts 
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5. 
qualitative method for researching similar to data 
5 points
Question 17
 The ideal value of MAD is
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1. 
0 
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2. 
100 
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3. 
10 
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4. 
none of the above 
5 points
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